29 October 2018 - 31 October 2018
Policy Program I Scenario Workshop on “The Future of European Security and its Impact on Europe’s Center and Peripheries”
From October 29 to 31, 2018, the Aspen Institute organized a Scenario Workshop on the topic "The Future of European Security and its Impact on Europe's Centers and Peripheries". Participants included experts from a network of security think tanks from the Western Balkans as well as German experts and representatives of Federal Ministries. The workshop looked at potential future scenarios for European and in particular South and Southeast European security. It started off by discussing the main characteristics and threats of the emerging security environment. It was then taken into account which roles EU and non-EU countries will play in the future and which interests they might have in South and Southeastern Europe. Furthermore, it was analyzed how global trends, key drivers of change and Black Swans (low probability, high impact events) might affect European security within the next decade. Based on these discussions, scenarios for 2028 for South and Southeastern Europe were developed.