Eight Years After Aspen Germany’s 2017 Foresight Project
Berlin, October 22, 2025 — When experts gathered at the Aspen Institute Germany in 2017 to imagine possible future scenarios, few could have predicted how closely parts of their fictional scenarios would mirror today’s geopolitical landscape. Among their projections: the U.S. withdrawing from global trade frameworks, China deploying an aircraft carrier to the Red Sea, and digital terrorism shaking the foundations of American democracy.
At the time, the exercise seemed like an academic thought experiment, led by Rüdiger Lentz, then Executive Director of the Aspen Germany’s, and Dr. Anna Kuchenbecker, the Institute’s Deputy Director at the time. Supported by the Lotto Stiftung Berlin and the Federal Agency for Civic Education (bpb), the workshop brought together 24 experts from 17 countries, using scenario thinking and strategic foresight methods under the facilitation of Oliver Gnad from the Bureau für Zeitgeschehen. The results were published in a fictional newspaper dated October 21, 2025.
Reading these scenarios today, some appear to mirror today’s reality. The prediction of the “United States exiting GATT” may not have occurred in form, but the Trump administration’s tariff policies and its renewed skepticism toward multilateral trade reflect the same underlying logic. Meanwhile, China’s military presence has expanded to the Middle East, and the cyber realm has become an active front of geopolitical competition.
The sense of uncertainty that shaped the 2017 foresight exercise feels remarkably familiar in 2025. Nine months into Donald Trump’s second presidential term, the transatlantic relationship once again faces turbulence. Disputes over NATO contributions, security guarantees, and tariffs have reignited debates about Europe’s strategic autonomy. Russia’s war against Ukraine, ongoing instability in the Middle East, and China’s growing assertiveness within the international community contribute to a shifting global order.
Yet, uncertainty also brings opportunity. Europe’s capacity to adapt, demonstrated through COVID-19 solidarity, diversification away from Russian gas, and unified support for Ukraine, has strengthened its resilience. Despite political friction, the transatlantic bond remains the cornerstone of European security and shared democratic values.
Eight years on, Aspen’s foresight experiment reminds us how we can not only shape the future, but possibly also prepare for it.
With this link, you can read the fictional newspaper titled The Aspen Insight.
