Deep Dive Discussion: Deterrence in the 21st Century: Nuclear Strategy in an Age of Disruption

The global security order is undergoing a period of profound transformation: great power competition is intensifying, emerging technologies are reshaping military capabilities at unprecedented speed, and existing arms control frameworks are steadily eroding. Against this backdrop, the logic of nuclear deterrence itself is increasingly being called into question.
Together with Jeanne Dillschneider, Dr. Karl-Heinz Kamp, Philipp Rombach, and Christoph Schmid, the discussion “Deterrence in the 21st Century: Nuclear Strategy in an Age of Disruption” hosted in cooperation with the Deutsche Atlantische Gesellschaft explored what nuclear deterrence can look like in today’s complex strategic environment.
Following the end of the Cold War, Germany experienced a decline in strategic nuclear literacy. Today, as the European security environment becomes increasingly uncertain, a renewed understanding of deterrence and strategic stability is becoming more important than ever.
A central question of the discussion was the future reliability of the U.S. nuclear umbrella. The continued U.S. nuclear presence in Europe plays a crucial role in deterring adversaries and limiting incentives for further nuclear proliferation. At the same time, growing political uncertainty in Washington has raised questions about the long-term credibility of the American security commitment.
The discussion also addressed whether European alternatives could fill a potential gap. Neither French nor British nuclear forces could fully replace the U.S. extended deterrent, raising fundamental questions about allied commitments and the difficult choices that could arise in an extreme crisis.
These developments underline the need for a broader and more informed debate on nuclear strategy and deterrence in Germany and Europe. A clearer understanding of the challenges, limitations, and risks involved will be essential as the European security environment continues to evolve.