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Keeping the Peace or Fueling the Fire? The Future of Nuclear Deterrence

    • February 14, 2026
  • -
    • February 14, 2026

One of the highlights of Aspen Germany’s activities at the MSC 2026 was the Oxford-style debate on the future of nuclear deterrence, organized in cooperation with Amerikahaus München, Tagesspiegel, and the Academic Association for Security Studies (BSH). The session brought together two teams of experts to debate whether nuclear arsenals should be modernized and how such efforts shape global security. The debate reflected growing uncertainty about the role of nuclear weapons in today’s geopolitical environment. One side argued that modernization programs are essential to keep existing arsenals credible, usable, and therefore capable of maintaining deterrence and preventing escalation. The opposing team warned that these same programs could undermine global security by fostering a new nuclear arms race, weakening arms control, and increasing the risk of miscalculation. The discussion featured leading voices including HéloïseFayet, Research Fellow and Head of the Deterrence and Proliferation program, Security Studies Center, Ifri, Camille Grand, Secretary General, European Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association (ASD, Mallory Stewart, Chief Executive Officer, Council on Strategic Risks, Daniel Poneman, prev. U.S. Deputy Secretary of Energy, Emma Belcher, President, Ploughshares, Sara Nanni, Member of the German Bundestag, Alliance 90/The Greens, Dr. Sibylle Bauer, Director of Studies, Armament and Disarmament, SIPRI, and Melissa Parke, Director of ICAN, who argued their positions with precision and passion. 

Despite differing perspectives, participants converged on the importance of renewed dialogue, transparency, and risk-reduction measures. A key takeaway from the debate was that, regardless of where one stands on modernization, there is a shared commitment to preventing nuclear escalation. The session demonstrated that common ground can be found in the fundamental goal of safeguarding global security.The event took place on February 14, 2026. 

Contact

  • Molly Hall

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  • Lena Bühring

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  • ehlers@aspeninstitute.de
  • Niklas Zimmer

  • Program Assistant
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  • zimmer@aspeninstitute.de
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